WINSight // Using Strategic Foresight to Understand the Future
This past year challenged our ability to envision what the future might hold - and understandably so. The level of uncertainty in the world today is unprecedented. As innovators, thinking about the future is at the core of what we do. So, how can we prepare for the future in a world characterized by growing complexity and rapid change? How can we discern long-term, significant change versus nearer-term trends (i.e., snapshots of the present)?
On March 25th, WIN: Women in Innovation teamed up with Radha Mistry and Ellen Hlozan from Autodesk Research to host a virtual workshop on leveraging strategic foresight as a framework for planning for the future. Not only did attendees walk away with a tool kit for identifying change, we also reflected on how we can design futures that are -inclusive for all.
Earlier this year, Jack Dorsey sold a jpeg of his first-ever tweet for over $2.9 million. As of March 2021, Miquela - a fictional CGI model and influencer - reached over 3 million followers on Instagram. How often do you read a news article or see a social media post and think, “can this be real?” It’s a fair -- and essential -- question. How do we as innovators identify indicators of change versus noise?
While we cannot predict the future, having a framework to navigate times of uncertainty can help us better prepare for what the future holds. One way to do so is by utilizing strategic foresight to identify weak signals of change. Here’s how to begin:
1. Framing your domain. Strategic foresight is the intentional practice of thinking about the future to navigate uncertainty and more proactively respond to change. This approach applies to nearly all areas of life: education, retail, parenthood, food, health, mobility. The list is never-ending.
To get started, reflect on one of these domains and ask yourself:
What are some key themes and topics to explore?
What assumptions are embedded in the ways people talk about the domain?
What do we need to learn more about? What are we uncertain about?
By framing your domain, you can more easily identify how that domain exists today and begin scanning for signals of what is changing within that domain.
2. Using the STEEP framework.
To innovate effectively, we must have a holistic understanding of the landscape in which we operate and broaden our thinking beyond our own biases. According to William Gibson, “the future is already here -- it’s just not evenly distributed.”
When scanning for weak signals of change, consider whose problems will be everyone's soon? Who is already living in the future, and who is living in the past?
One way to broaden your perspective beyond personal biases is to utilize the STEEP framework. This means evaluating the Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political factors that influence a particular domain or area of focus.
Consider the current work-from-home situation.
Social: How does working from home impact gender identity differently? In what ways has parenthood changed because of work-from-home?
Technological: How have developments in video technology facilitated a better work from home environment? Who is impacted by reliance on fast WiFi and sophisticated computers to have a sustainable work-from-home experience?
Economic: In what ways have economic factors influenced the work from home experience? What types of occupations have benefited from the new construct? Which has suffered?
Environmental: How has a decrease in commuting impacted carbon emissions? Alternatively, how has increased screen time impacted server use?
Political: How has working from home affected our view of the current political regime?
3. Understanding what you are looking for. A key methodology for identifying what’s changing is recognizing weak signals of change. These are fragmented indicators that give us insight into our potential futures and reveal something about the present. When you begin to connect the dots between multiple weak signals, you get emergent trends. In other words, these are data points that could indicate that rapid or permanent change is underway.
For example, consider retail. The way people shop has evolved dramatically in the last decade. Rather than people visiting in-person shopping malls or employing personal stylists at department stores to purchase clothing, consumers are shopping online. This fundamental change in how consumers shop fueled the success of the likes of Stitch Fix, Instacart and Amazon. While COVID-19 certainly catalyzed growth for e-commerce, these companies have been around since well before the global pandemic.
4. Knowing where to look. Many of us tend to stick to a routine when digesting new information - reading the same newspaper every morning over coffee, listening to the same podcasts on our daily walks, and scrolling through the same Twitter feeds of our favorite celebrities. When you can, challenge yourself to get outside your own bubble. Read academic papers from professors that did not teach at your institution. Engage with social media platforms that are new to you. Listen to interviews from entrepreneurs that work outside of your professional sector. And, as always, read books (including fiction). Sources that provide views opposite to the ones you engage with regularly will broaden your perspective and give you a deeper sense of what is changing.
5. Determining when to look. To effectively utilize strategic foresight, you should be scanning for signals of change all the time if you are a professional or throughout a project’s lifespan:
At the beginning: to understand the system
During a project: to understand more deeply what is changing
At the end of a project: to provide evidence for a foresight project or program
When you feel yourself becoming certain about a signal, pressure test your own biases and assumptions.
6. Paying attention to how you feel. When you are scanning for signals, pay close attention to how it makes you feel. Strategic Foresight bridges the gap between reality and science fiction, or provocation and planning. Does the change require a suspension of disbelief to even wrap your head around the idea? Does something feel familiar, even though it’s novel? If any of these feelings resonate, dig deeper.
Change is at the heart of innovation, but sometimes it’s hard to know what real change looks and feels like. As we think about how the next year, five years, or fifty years might look, it is important to reflect on how we can create a more inclusive future for all. Strategic foresight is a practice that provides tools and methods to help us identify change and ultimately design a more inclusive future. Challenge yourself to think beyond your bubble —- and always be scanning!
Thank you to Ellen and Radha for sharing your experiences and insights with us. As always, we would like to thank the WIN community for participating in the event!
Editorial: Charlotte Goldman
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